Tuesday, December 31, 2013

The New Right is the Old Left


When I was in graduate school in the late 1980s and early 1990s I developed an interest in what has become popularly known as the "political correctness" movement. I was particularly interested in that aspect of the movement that affected higher education. I read and sympathized with several books on this topic, books with titles such as "Tenured Radicals" and "The Closing of the American Mind," among others. John Searle, a great American philosopher, wrote an essay for the New York Review of Books entitled  "The Storm over the University", which I still consider to be the definitive treatment of the subject.
Because political correctness was mainly a phenomenon of the Left, at the time I was viewed by many of my colleagues as a conservative. And, insofar as my criticisms of campus PC  would have in many ways resonated with your average College Republican, it is not difficult to understand why people thought that. However, I (like Searle) was not and am not a conservative. I have always voted Democratic, I was a critic of the Vietnam War, and I loathed the Nixon administration. My objection to campus PC was that I thought that it undermined intellectual standards of excellence, especially in the humanities.
The common justification for turning classrooms into little more than opportunities for political indoctrination went something like this: there are no objective standards of excellence in the Arts and Humanities, thus educators should be free to adopt whatever standards in the classroom they believe would achieve a socially desirable goal. 
Another justification one heard had to do with the unavoidable political dimension of higher education. Searle writes:
I should say again exactly what the argument is and why it is bad. Its premise is that universities are already instruments of social transformation because the university has all sorts of political effects, some of them conservative, some even reactionary. The conclusion that is drawn from this premise is that it is therefore acceptable and desirable that we should try to make the university into an instrument of social transformation for desirable rather than undesirable ends; and as leftists we should make sure that it promotes left-wing purposes.
The premise is correct but the conclusion does not follow. The university, like all human institutions and activities has all sorts of political effects and consequences. It shares with music, sex, art, religion, physics, gastronomy, and everything else a political dimension in the sense that it can have political consequences. In each field people with different views will gain or lose followers, influence, and power and have effects on the behavior of others. But it does not follow from this, indeed it is a fallacy to conclude, that the only or primary criteria for assessment of its activities are political or that its objective should be political. Universities at their best often achieve social transformations because knowledge can transform people and institutions. But the aim should always be knowledge, not transformation.
In the 20 years since I first engaged this subject I have not changed my mind. I know from personal experience that higher education--again, especially in the humanities--is often plagued by professors with strong political beliefs who use the classroom as a platform for the expression of those beliefs. As it so happens, these beliefs are usually, though not always, of the Left. Among the 20 or so students in my graduate school class there was an actual member of communist party. At my first teaching job one of my best friends on the faculty firmly believed that the purpose of the Berlin Wall had been to keep Western invaders out of the communist utopia of East Germany. Since I left the Academy I have had no further occasion to run into folks like this.
I only mention this history as a preface to what appears to me to be a breathtaking turnaround on the part of conservatives. Many of the same people who used to bemoan the way that university professors used the classroom as an outlet for political indoctrination now routinely engage in and applaud exactly the same approach--for the Right, of course--in the media. Amazingly, they use many of the same justifications as did their leftist academic forbearers. You routinely hear conservatives point out the need for blatantly partisan and ideological outlets, such as Fox News, AM talk radio, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, a need based on the perception that the news is not objective in any case, so why not use it for a politically desirable purpose?
The latest egregious example of this lies in the Right's reaction to a widely-discussed year-long investigation by The New York Times of the attack against the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Benghazi, Libya. The Times found that, contrary to repeated insistence by those on the Right, that Al Qaeda was not involved in the attack and that an inflammatory American-made video, "Innocence of Muslims", denigrating Islam was one of the main motivations for the attack.
The Times story backs up these conclusions with fairly compelling evidence. For example, the best evidence for an Al Qaeda link was an intercepted phone call from one of the attackers to a a friend with known ties to Al Qaeda. When told of the attack, the friend responded with surprise, as if this were the first he had heard of it. Second, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb sent a letter that was later obtained western media listing notable acts of terrorism perpetrated by the group in the region, but it made no mention of Benghazi at all. As for the influence of the video, The Times claimed to have a Libyan reporter on the ground the night of the attack who spoke directly to many of the principals and they specifically mentioned the video as one of the main issues motivating the assault. They believed that they were standing up for Islam.
The Right reacted to this unwelcome news just about as you would expect. Conservative members of Congress and conservative pundits denounced the Times story as false. This is really simple. If  someone says or writes something that you believe is false, and the claims made were accompanied by specific evidence, you should include along with your denunciation a rebuttal of that evidence. However, the conservative reaction to the New York Times story completely ignored the evidence presented.
Charles Krauthammer declared confidently that the story was "obviously" a political move initiated by The Times as a way to protect Hillary Clinton. Krauthammer's only evidence for this claim was his analysis of New York Times editor Andrew Rosenthal's commentary on the conservative content-free denunciation of the article. Rosenthal wrote
The Republicans hope to tarnish Democratic candidates by making it seem as though Mr. Obama doesn’t take Al Qaeda seriously. They also want to throw mud at former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who they fear will run for president in 2016.
This analysis not only seems correct to me, it seems nearly self-evident. How commenting on a political reaction by conservatives to the story is conclusive proof of a political motivation for the story in the first place is spectacularly unclear. Conservatives are just like the radical professors I read about 20 years ago. Because they see politics in everything, they ascribe political motivations to virtually all public activities. Once you start to see politics everywhere in art, journalism, education, and entertainment then your analytical toolbox is limited to merely ascribing political motives and predicting political consequences. That's it. Nothing else matters.
By way of conclusion, Searle reminds us in that seminal article that
Categories like “left” and “right” have a useful place in politics and journalism and even a marginal place in scholarship. But where serious intellectual work is concerned they tend to be the enemies of thought. If one begins an argument with the idea that one is “speaking as a leftist” (or “rightist” or “liberal” etc.) one is unlikely to produce anything that rises above the mediocre intellectual level of the categories themselves.
I suppose that this is what bothers me the most about this phenomenon. It debases and trivializes our public discourse. Really smart people find themselves with little to say beyond expounding silly conspiracy theories and soap box proselytizing.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

60 Minutes has a Problem

I love 60 Minutes. The show is a national treasure. It also happens to be extremely popular. It is routinely among the ten most-watched shows on television. That is an astounding fact considering that 60 Minutes is basically an investigative news show. Admittedly, it often includes light, entertainment stories as well, but its bread and butter is hard news.

Last week's story on the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi has caused quite an uproar. The focus of the controversy is that the show's primary source seems to have told a very different story to the FBI. 60 Minutes is now reviewing its reporting.

What I find frustrating about this is that the veracity of the witness, Greg Hicks, is not to my mind especially important. His story added some detail and color to the events, but did not change the basic narrative of what occurred. The really big problem with the report lies elsewhere, and it has gotten very little attention. The report ended with a lament, pained speculation about why military assets were not deployed to protect the U.S. forces on the ground.
LOGAN (VOICEOVER): [T]he lingering question is why no larger military response ever crossed the border into Libya -- something Greg Hicks realized wasn't going to happen just an hour into the attack.

LOGAN: You have this conversation with the defense attaché. You ask him what military assets are on their way. And he says--

HICKS: Effectively, they're not. And I -- for a moment, I just felt lost. I just couldn't believe the answer. And then I made the call to the annex chief, and I told him, "Listen, you've got to tell those guys there may not be any help coming."

LOGAN: That's a tough thing to understand. Why?

HICKS: It just is. We--for us, for the people that go out-- onto the edge, to represent our country, we believe that if we get in trouble, they're coming to get us. That our back is covered. To hear that it's not, it's a terrible, terrible experience.

When I watched the show Sunday I was appalled. The issue of the lack of military response to the events in Benghazi has been repeatedly and exhaustively addressed by top military officials. It simply is not possible that 60 Minutes was unaware of this. This means that the show intentionally left out crucial information from their report in order to--one can only assume--make the events seem more controversial than they were. This is pretty much the functional definition of sensationalst journalism, something I thought that 60 Minutes was above.

The liberal media website Media Matters has covered this fairly well, but the mainstream press has largely ignored this part of the story.

My guess is that 60 Minutes will end up retracting or substantially altering its story because of the apparent unreliability of its main witness. It may even issue an apology. My fear is that it will not acknowledge its failure to fully report on the issue of the military response, which is the bigger problem with the story.

This reminds me of the mini-scandal discussed here over Bob Woodward's book on John Belushi, in which a highly-respected journalist shaves the facts just enough to add to the story's dramatic impact. It isn't lying exactly, but rather putting selective emphasis--spin if you like--on a story to make it seem more dramatic or controversial than it actually is. Hollywood does this all of the time when making docudramas. Argo is an excellent example of this. The extremely tense and dramatic airport escape is basically a complete fabrication. In contrast, Zero Dark Thirty sticks much closer to the historical facts while telling its story. Its only really flaw is that it portrays as routine harsh interrogation practices that were controversial inside the government even at the time they were being used.

I expected more from 60 Minutes.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

My ObamaCare Experience

I have been trying for the last 3 weeks to enroll in health insurance via the healthcare.gov web site with no luck. Tonight I succeeded!

What I found is that the web site worked fine using Internet Explorer, but did not work for me using Firefox. Once I switched to IE, the process was smooth and painless. I signed up for a Coventry plan and paid the first month's premium in about 15 minutes.

My only disappointment is that the coverage is a little more expensive than I had hoped. When I left my job in Maryland I maintained my health insurance through COBRA for 18 months. The cost was $500 a month. I was hoping to get private health insurance for no more than this. However, the cost of a Gold plan, which pays 80% of costs with a $2100 maximum annual out-of-pocket expense is $515.36 a month. I could have gotten a Silver plan that covered 70% of costs with a $3200 maximum out-of-pocket expense for about $450 a month, but for now I am going to go with the Gold plan.

Since I am self-employed, health insurance costs are tax deductible, so my actual expense will be closer to $350 a month.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

I am out of step and now I know why

I have been puzzled of late over why I have been so out of step with current technology. I have always considered myself something of a techie, so why am I so hopelessly behind the times?

By "current technology" I mean Twitter and Facebook on the software side and tablets and smart phones on the hardware side. I read an article in Slate about Microsoft's latest tablet entry that helps to explain this. The money quote:
There’s just one problem with Microsoft pitching its new tablets at people who prefer to use their tablets for work rather than play: Those people barely exist. . . a Gartner survey found that tablet owners use their devices overwhelmingly for entertainment, followed by social media, e-mail, and other types of communication. Just 15 percent of tablet screen time is devoted to work. That makes sense when you consider that nearly everyone who owns a tablet also owns a different device that is far-better suited to doing work, whether desktop, laptop, or both. The tablet is where they go to get away from that work.
I don't use Twitter and Facebook, because other than their amazing ability to rapidly metastasize information, they are generally used to express day-to-day events and other mundane activities. I am just not interested in sharing this stuff with, well, anyone. I guess that I don't think that my life is that interesting. The overwhelming majority of us have lives that are not that interesting. I don't use tablets or smart phones because they are generally used for watching videos, listening to music, reading and posting to Twitter, texting, reading and posting to Facebook, and e-mail. I use my laptop for e-mail and videos. I don't much listen to music anymore, and oh, as I already pointed out I don't have much use for Facebook or Twitter.

I use my laptop for web browsing, e-mail, videos, and work. When I am working I am often in Microsoft Excel. You need a big screen and a decent keyboard to do work in Excel. Anyone who tries to do serious spreadsheet work on a smart phone or a tablet is very weird or a masochist or both

Of course, the great advantage of tablets and smart phones is their portability. If I regularly flew on airplanes this might appeal to me. As it is, I bring my laptop with me on all trips and set it up at the hotel in which I am staying, (they all have high-speed Internet). I watch with amazement when people--mostly young people--emerge from the movie theater and immediately open their phones to check messages as they are walking out to the car. Jeez, what is the rush? You can't wait to get home to check your e-mail? I check my e-mail 10 to 20 times a day. Do I really need to check it 100 times a day? There is a fine but clearly distinguishable line between diligence and obsession.

At least I think I get Facebook. If it were better designed and if I were more social, then I would probably use it regularly. Twitter, on the other hand, is completely inexplicable to me. Jonathan Chait, someone whose work and opinion I greatly admire, tried to explain the value of Twitter. He writes:
I started with a distrust/misunderstanding of Twitter, but quickly found it to be a super-efficient system for filtering out the crap I don’t want to wade through on the Internet and delivering the stuff I want to read, written or recommended by my favorite writers, to me. I also like to use it to trade quips. I’ve quickly grown addicted to it. I’ve seen enough writers go through the process — hate Twitter, get reluctantly dragooned on to it, discover you can’t live without it — that I attribute basically all hatred of Twitter to a lack of familiarity.
Of course it is possible that I simply lack the familiarity that Chait has about this medium for posting a maximum of 140-character comments, but I don't really think so. BTW that last sentence contained 141 characters, which gives you an indication of how truly in-depth twitter posts can be. I think that the problem just might be that Chait doesn't understand how to use his web browser.

If there are people whose writing you really like reading (Chait mentions Ezra Klein), then the web browser has a way of tracking just them and ignoring the rest of the Internet. It is called bookmarks (or Favorites in the IE world). I have bookmarks that take me to Chait's blog, Paul Krugman's blog, and, yes, Ezra Klein's blog, among others. These blogs are not limited in length, and thus these writers have an opportunity to develop their thoughts in depth. Furthermore, if any of the posts on my regularly visited pages recommend the work of others that I have not bookmarked, these recommendations are usually accompanied by a hypertext link to the relevant article. So, other than the additional activity of "trading quips", which frankly sounds suspiciously to me like famous people patting each other on the back for being famous, I don't really understand what else Twitter brings to the table.

Interestingly, both Ezra Klein and Paul Krugman have commented on this. Both use Twitter merely as a means to push links to their respective blogs to followers. It is the blogs that are worth reading, and not the Tweets. However, those followers could just have easily bookmarked Klein's and Krugman's blog, as I have done. They don't need to get a Tweet with a link. This is deeply weird.

The bottom line is that although I don't think that my life is that interesting, I am just egotistical enough to believe that I do have interesting things to say from time to time, which explains why I have a blog and don't bother with 140-character quips and observations.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Truthiness Lives!

Steven Colbert coined the word "truthiness." It refers to a belief that is not true, but FEELS true because it satisfies our existing belief system.

I just read an op-ed by Paul Krugman and a Politico article on conservative historian David Barton. They both make essentially the same point. Both are worth a read.

Krugman points out that there is a "wonk gap" between the GOP and, well, just about everyone else. Conservatives just know that:
  • ObamaCare has caused health insurance premiums to increase.
  • Government employment has risen under the Obama administration.
  • The Federal Reserve's policy of low interest rates and easy money have led to inflation.
  • Global warming is a scientific hoax.
  • Mitt Romney lost only because he wasn't conservative enough.
None of these are beliefs are true, but they just sound so good to conservatives that they must be true, despite the evidence. Truthiness.

The Politico article offers a fascinating case study of this phenomenon. Conservative historian David Barton's career and credibility were in tatters just a few months ago. He had published a book claiming that Thomas Jefferson was "an orthodox Christian who saw no need to separate church and state." Barton's work had always come under fire from mainstream academic historians, but this time even his natural allies had had enough. A group of Christian scholars strongly criticized the book, which contributed to the book being voted “the least credible history book in print”. Then Barton's publisher withdrew the book from circulation claiming that “basic truths just were not there.”

For most academics this would be a career-ending event, but not in conservative land. Barton continues to give well-received speeches before conservative audiences, and Glen Beck has offered to republish the Jefferson book. The Politico article points out that "Politicians continue to join him as guests on his daily radio broadcast. Crowds continue to pack his speeches. And Barton said his organization continues to field calls from politicians seeking his advice."

Truthiness lives!

Saturday, August 24, 2013

The Saddest News

In an interview with AARP magazine Linda Ronstadt revealed that she has been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease and is no longer able to sing.

For those of us who followed and loved her music in the mid seventies, this is shattering news. I get it that everyone gets old and dies, but I somehow thought that Linda would fall in the line of service, going out with a microphone in her hand and band behind her.

Consider this 1972 clip from The Midnight Special. As beautiful as this is, it was not atypical. She always sounded this way.

 


This clip is from the very early days in which she was just beginning to explode on the national scene as a great vocalist in the pop/country rock tradition. Albums like Heart Like a Wheel, Prisoner in Disguise, and Hasten Down the Wind, were the trilogy that defined her dominance as the female vocalist of popular music in the 1970s.

Female vocalist of the current era--even accomplished ones--occasionally get into lip-syncing controversies. It is simply unimaginable that Linda Ronstadt would ever lip sync a performance.

I saw Linda in concert in 1975 at the Southern Illinois University campus just after she had released Hasten Down the Wind. It was the best concert I ever saw. Every song was note perfect. In 2005 I attended a Simon and Garfunkel concert in Baltimore, which may have surpassed it, but it is a close call.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Chicks Rule

I do not like country music. Then I was introduced to the Dixie Chicks.

In 2002 they recorded a cover of the Stevie Nicks/Fleetwood Mac song Landslide. It changed the original, but in a surprisingly appealing way. Landslide was released on a album by the name of Home. Then the Chicks did something really unusual. They held a televised concert in which they played all of the songs on Home, start-to-finish, live and unedited and released this as a DVD.

I was hooked. An Evening with the Dixie Chicks is the most enjoyable concert film I had seen since Woodstock. The sheer fun they and audience have along with the stunning professionalism of the music is a true joy to watch.

Then, as anyone who followed the news at the time knows, in the early days of the Iraq War, the lead singer Natalie Maines announced at a London concert that they were "ashamed that George Bush was from Texas". All three of the Dixie Chicks, Maines, Martie McGuire, and Emily Robison are Texas natives. Their lives and careers were never the same.

They instantly became caught up in the culture wars, in which they were identified by the Fox News/Rush Limbaugh slice of America as "liberals". This wouldn't have mattered so much if only for the fact that they were a country music act, and the country music fan base is largely composed of rural conservatives. They went on a U.S. tour in the midst of the uproar certain that the fans would boo them off the stage or, worse, simply not show up. But that didn't happen. The concerts were a great success. However, country radio stations all but banned their music from airwaves.

Some time passed and emotions cooled. By this time is was positively mainstream to oppose the Iraq War, and it became increasingly silly for people to disparage the Chicks for simply articulating what most people thought in any case. For a while it seemed as though their careers might continue largely unscathed.

Then, the Chicks--lead by Maines--decided to offer as their first comeback single a song entitled Not Ready to Make Nice. Its lyrics are quite clear that even if country music fans were ready to move on, Natalie was still really pissed at the way she and the band had been treated. It opened all of the old wounds. If there was ever a chance that the Dixie Chicks could ever again have wide appeal with a country audience, then Not Ready to Make Nice closed that door.

Not Ready to Make Nice was included in their 2006 album Taking the Long Way. The album's eponymous first song tells the world that they don't do things the easy way. It's a great song on a great album. The thing is, though, it didn't really sound like a Dixie Chicks album. It was more mainstream pop and light rock than country. The critics approved of the album, and the Dixie Chicks swept the Grammys that year, winning every award they were up for. Taking the Long Way was successful to be sure. It sold 2.5 million copies in the U.S. alone and was a big hit internationally as well. However, Home had gotten an even better critical response, and their 1999 album Fly sold 10 million copies in the U.S. Clearly, it didn't matter what music critics thought. Country music fans had turned their backs on the Dixie Chicks.

The same year Taking the Long Way was winning awards, a documentary came out about the controversy surrounding the Chicks entitled Shut Up and Sing. Among other events, it documents a painful moment when--after having rejected an offer from a corporate sponsor for a 20 million dollar guarantee for their new U.S. tour (Maines is seen remarking that accepting it would be a sign that they lacked faith in themselves)--they sit in front of a computer and watch the Ticketmaster site and are told that sales for the concert series were "sluggish."

For the first time since they hit it big, they were canceling dates and playing to venues that were not sold out. I saw them at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C. during that tour. Maines was not the same. She engaged in very little banter with the audience and generally seemed wary and hesitant. She didn't seem to enjoy herself. However, her voice and the music were exemplary. Sisters McGuire and Robison seemed like their old selves.

That was 2006. Since then the Chicks have appeared in public together only rarely and have not recorded another album. McGuire and Robison released an album on their own under  the name Courtyard Hounds. It was not particularly successful, at least by Dixie Chicks standards selling 825,000 copies in the U.S. They released another album just this summer that was almost completely ignored by the public. Maines released a rock-oriented solo album entitled Mother that was also unsuccessful, selling only 60,000 copies in the U.S.

As part of the promotional tour for Mother, Maines came out and said publicly what many already knew, which was that she never really felt comfortable in the country music world, and that the estrangement between the country music establishment and the Dixie Chicks was probably here to stay. She also made it clear that she had no plans to record with her former bandmates. There was never any hint of personal animus between Maines and the other two Chicks, but they are certainly musically estranged.

I would be shocked if the Dixie Chicks--at least any line-up that includes Natalie Maines--ever records again. The problem is that Emily Robison and Martie McGuire are country artists. They always have been and likely always will be so. Maines has made it clear that she has no desire to return to country music, and it is hard to imagine conservative country music fans and radio stations accepting her back even if she did. For fans of the Dixie Chicks, this is incredibly sad.

To get an idea of what the Chicks were like at their peak, see this 2006 MusiCares tribute to James Taylor. Many bands played that night, including Sting, Alison Kraus, Bruce Springsteen, and Carole King. Despite all of the world-class talent on hand, the Dixie Chicks rendition of Shower the People blew them all off the stage.

 

This all reminds me of a theme that I come back to over and over about those who experience great success, only to see it fade away.
For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. . . . The conquerors rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. . . . A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Tea Partyism and the Media

I was watching This Week with George Stephanopolous today and it occurred to me that the mainstream media is ill-equipped to report on the Tea Party movement. I say this because one of Stephanopolous's guests was Louie Gohmert, GOP Representative from Texas and Tea Party booster. He made a couple of statements that were breathtaking in their scope and racialism, while at the same time revealing a routine, almost mundane, disconnect from reality.

His first statement was a defense of the Tea Party idea--publicly advocated by Ted Cruz* and Marco Rubio--that the Congress should shut down the government unless it withdraws funding for Obamacare. He said:
Even though we're one half of a legislative body--from which no spending occurs unless we agree--that is a position that allows us to force others to adhere to the constitution. We don't have to wait for the Supreme Court, we can force that. And we can say you are going to abide by the constitution whether the Supreme Court gets it wrong or right.
One of the most fundamental tenants of our form of government is legislative review, a principle established in 1803 (1803!) by the Supreme Court decision Marbury v. Madison. According to this principle, the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of the constitutionality of laws, including direct acts of Congress. Apparently, the current Tea Party position, as advocated by Rep. Gohmert, is to ignore over two-hundred years of precedent on this matter and assign the role of constitutional guardianship to a faction of the right of the right that seems to currently control one branch of government. This is not only radical in the sense that it would overturn a fundamental aspect of our governing tradition, it is also anti-democratic. The far-right of the right in this country does not get to unilaterally make policy for the entire country.

Gohmert's second claim was about Obamacare. He said:
What about the poor guy out there making $14,000. He is going to pay extra income tax if he can't cannot afford to pay the several thousand dollars for an Obamacare policy?
If the consequences were not so severe, it would be almost amusing that the harshest critics of Obamacare really have very little understanding of the law they despise beyond words or reason. A single person making $14,000 a year would be at 122% of the official poverty level. Obamacare has two ways of dealing with this individual.

First, Medicaid expansion would cover this person's medical bills fully. He wouldn't have to purchase private insurance at all. So in this case it would cost him not "several thousand dollars", but zero.

Second, if he is unfortunate enough to live in a state controlled by the GOP, then he may very well not be able to take advantage of the Medicaid expansion because many GOP-controlled states have refused to implement this provision of Obamacare (this was one of the consequences of the Supreme Court's favorable decision on the constitutionality of Obamacare). In this case, he would be required to purchase health insurance on the state exchanges. However, because of his low income that purchase would be heavily subsidized by the government. His out-of-pocket expense would be minimal. If you were an adult non-smoker making $14,000 a year then the government would subsidize 91% of the cost of your health insurance leaving you with a annual bill of, again, not "several thousand dollars", but $280. Of course, this hypothetical citizen could instead choose to pay the $695 income tax penalty as Gohmert suggests and have no health insurance at all, but that would be, well, insane.

What is interesting about all of this is not so much that there is a faction in American politics that has such views. The country has always been burdened by cranks and extremists. What interests me is how poorly the mainstream media is equipped to deal with this phenomenon. This episode of This Week in which Gohmert made these outrageous claims offers a clear example of the media's ineptitude. No one on the panel challenged Gomert's false claims about Obamacare nor his insurrectionist claims about the limits of Tea Party power. This is despite the fact that the panel included a Democratic Congressman and a Democratic consultant. They were simply incapable of pointing out for the benefit of the viewers how misinformed and radical Gohmert's views were. Perhaps it was out of a desire for comity; or, perhaps it was because they were--at least in the case of Obamacare--themselves poorly informed about the law's provisions. I honestly don't know.

I do know that The Daily Show--to name one good example of nontraditional media-- would have somehow been able to do what the Washington media establishment was in this case incapable of doing, which is to expose Gohmert and his ideological allies for what they are.

* Ted Cruz is a senator from Texas who assumed the seat of Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Add Rick Perry to the mix, and Texas seems to be a current hotbed for extreme right wing activism.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Obamacare in a Nutshell

Kevin Drum has a very nice summary today of how Obamacare works. It is clear, simple, and reveals just how based in common sense the health care law is. Here are the main points.
  1. Obamacare requires insurance companies to sell coverage to all comers, even those with preexisting conditions. This is called "guaranteed issue."
  2. For this to be workable, the price of insurance has to be about the same for everyone. Otherwise insurance companies will simply set prices high enough to exclude anyone with a preexisting condition. This is called "community rating."
  3. If you do this, the sickest people will all queue up for insurance. Healthy people won't bother. They'll just wait until they get sick and then sign up.
  4. But insurance companies depend on the law of averages: they need a large pool of customers, figuring that only a certain percentage will get sick each year. If their customer base is made up almost entirely of sick people, they'll quickly go out of business. This is the death spiral.
  5. The answer is to make sure that insurance companies continue to have a broad pool of customers, some of whom are healthy and some fraction of whom will get sick.
  6. The only way to do this effectively is to require that everyone buy health insurance. This is the "individual mandate."
  7. Poor people can't afford this, so you have to provide tax credits to help them out. These are the "subsidies."
It is really hard to see how anyone who understands this would oppose it; unless, of course, they did so purely for political reasons. But who would do that. . . . ?

Friday, June 21, 2013

My Steve Jobs

I have never owned an Apple product. In fact, I have always been annoyed by what seemed to me to be the cult-like attitude that many Apple owners expressed towards Steve Jobs, the Mac, and the variety of iPhones, iPads, and iWhatevers.

Then I read Walter Isaacson's Steve Jobs biography. I still don't own an Apple product, but I have a better understanding of and empathy for the Apple mind-set. In particular, I realized the other day that I have my own Steve Jobs. His name is Elon Musk.

Musk has done something similar to Jobs. He has not only been a pioneer in shepherding a technological revolution, but he has done so in multiple industries. Musk was a founder of PayPal. He then started Tesla, the only spectacularly successful electric car company. Not satisfied with that, he started SpaceX, the first private rocket company to service the international space station. To top it off, he inspired SolarCity, which has become a quite successful solar power company in California.

I watched this video today with rapt excitement, listening to the adoring crowd soak in Musk's presentation, and realized how similar the event was to those many times in which Steve Jobs unveiled new Apple products to the similarly devoted.


I guess that this makes me kind of a nut, but it is a burden that I will have to bear.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Urban Electrification

Last week I did something that I have been wanting to do for a long time. I traded my Ford Fusion hybrid for an electric car, a 2013 Nissan Leaf. The Leaf is not suitable as one's sole source of transportation. Its range is limited to about 80 miles. However, as a commuter car it is almost ideal. It is comfortable, quiet, and surprisingly quick. Once you have experienced an electric drive train, it is hard to imagine ever going back to a internal combustion engine. The Leaf has no oil, no spark plugs, no transmission, and. . . uses zero gasoline.

Forgetting the Leaf in particular, I have discovered something in my short time with this car that leads me to believe that the electric car is destined to take over the personal transportation market. Electric cars are almost unbelievably inexpensive to drive.

Consider the following: The average car gets 22.4 MPG. The average cost of regular gas is currently $3.63. If you assume that the average life of a car is 150,000 miles, then you can expect to spend over $24,000 on gasoline over the life of your car. By way of comparison, the local cost of electricity where I live is 10.4 cents per kilowatt/hour (kwH) and the Leaf, for example,  gets about 3.9 miles per kwH. Assuming the same 150,000 mile lifetime of the car, one could expect to spend just under $4,000 on electricity. That offers a savings of over $20,000 in fuel costs over the life of the vehicle! If you assume that the price of gasoline will go up, which it almost certainly will, then the savings would be even greater. These numbers are simply too dramatic to ignore.

With the opportunity for such huge improvements in efficiency, why haven't electric cars taken over the market already? There are two reasons. First, there simply is not a nationwide network of fast charging stations, stations that provide a full charge in no more than 30 minutes. For now, electric cars are mostly limited to commuting from home from where you can charge your vehicle every evening. Second, and even more importantly, battery technology is not yet advanced enough. Batteries that hold a sufficient amount of energy for normal use are extremely expensive. The Tesla Model S, which offers a range of 265 miles costs $80,000, way beyond the means of most consumers.

In fact, I believe that for purely electric mass market cars to be practical the battery needs to provide at least 300 miles of range in a vehicle that costs no more than $30,000.

The exciting part of all of this is that these two problems--fast charging infrastructure and affordable, more energy dense batteries--are almost certainly going to be solved in the next 3-5 years. More than one company has announced breakthroughs in battery technology. It is not too much of a stretch to imagine that within 3-5 years batteries with 4x improvement in power-to-cost ratio. Second, building a nationwide network of fast charging stations is a relatively simple task. Unlike liquid fuels, electricity does not have to be transported through pipelines or fuel trucks. Its presence is already ubiquitous. The cost to build fast charging stations is not trivial, but much less expensive than building a new gas station. Tesla has already begun to do this.

These are relatively modest technological hurdles to overcome. Perhaps a bigger problem lies not with the technology, but with many peoples' reluctance to embrace a completely new approach to such a familiar and essential part of our lives.

I, for one, am excited about the future.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

A Television List

The Writers Guild of America has produced a list of the top 101 best written television shows. Lists like this are great conversation starters.

What first struck me about the list is how it reinforces my previous blog post that centered around The-Best-Night-In-Television-Ever, the prime time Saturday night slate of shows on CBS in the 1973-1974 season.
  • M*A*S*H
  • All in the Family
  • The Mary Tyler Moore Show
  • The Bob Newhart Show
  • The Carol Burnett Show
Three of these shows--three!--are in the top ten of the WGA list:
#4 All in the Family
#5 M*A*S*H
#6 The Mary Tyler Moore Show
Don't feel too bad about the remaining two. The Carol Burnett Show and the Bob Newhart Show came in at #37 and #41, respectively.

This is an almost unbelievable accomplishment. Never in the history of the medium has so much quality been so tightly packed into a single evening by a single network. I am stunned that there has not been any discussion of this in the entertainment media, at least none that I have seen.

A few other aspects of the list struck me.
  • I was pleased that Seinfeld came in as the highest-rated comedy ever and the #2 best written show overall. This choice seems to validate a controversial TV Guide article that was published in 2002 announcing that Seinfeld was the greatest television show of all time.
  • I was pleased that The Wire made the top ten, though I thought that it should have been #1. The Sopranos won that prize. One television critic I like explained this by pointing out that purely in terms of writing quality, The Wire should have been #1, but that The Sopranos was accorded that slot because of its overall cultural impact. However, he went on to explain that if cultural impact was a valid criteria then it was insane that Seinfeld was rated higher than All in the Family. I go back and forth on this myself. The difficulty in comparing the two shows is that they are almost mirror opposites: the show about issues and the show about nothing. This is not apples and oranges. It is apples and plutonium.
  • I was pleased that the two most memorable shows from my childhood--The Andy Griffith Show and The Dick Van Dyke Show--both made the list. However, I think it was wrongheaded to rate Van Dyke at #15 and Griffith at #70. Oddly, The Andy Griffith Show has stood the test of time better Van Dyke's groundbreaking show, which can seem rather dated by contemporary standards. Morey Amsterdam's jokes and put-downs seemed hilarious to me in 1965. Now they seem like a lot of stale vaudeville schtick. However, Don Knots' brilliantly realized character of Barney Fife still makes me laugh forty-five years later.
  • I was doubly pleased--as all right-thinking people would be--that Star Trek was ranked #33 way ahead of The Next Generation at #79.
  • Disappointments? I never warmed up to Mad Men, so I certainly would not have placed it at #7. So too, Six Feet Under was little more than a warmed-over soap opera that had one or two decent seasons. Placing it at #19 is just silly. Dexter is a much better show, if Michael C. Hall premium cable shows is what you are looking for. I also thought that it was just plain weird that The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, and Late Night with David Letterman all made the list (The Daily Show made the top 20), but The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson wasn't on the list at all. This underscores a criticism I have heard about this this, namely that it is biased in favor of more contemporary shows that are fresher in memory.
  • I was pleased that Law & Order (the original) made the top fifty. I have always been a big fan, especially seasons 3-10, for the way it managed to shoehorn original material into an incredibly inflexible format: 
  1. the story begins when a crime is discovered and Jerry Orbach's Lenny Briscoe makes some wry quip at the scene
  2. the crime is investigated and an arrest is made
  3. the defendants are tried for the crime
  4. after the verdict comes in and Steven Hill's Adam Schiff ends the show with a wry quip.
  • Finally, I was pleased that Breaking Bad made the list at #13. People have been telling me to watch that show for years, and I got around to it only in the past couple of weeks (the wonder of Netflix makes this possible). Boy, were the advocates of that show right. It is very, very good. The Shield is another show like this that I will get around to once I have finished with Breaking Bad. It is #71.
Here's the entire list.


1. "The Sopranos"
2. "Seinfeld"
3. "The Twilight Zone"
4. "All in the Family"
5. "MASH"
6. "The Mary Tyler Moore Show"
7. "Mad Men"
8. "Cheers"
9. "The Wire"
10. "The West Wing"
11. "The Simpsons"
12. "I Love Lucy"
13. "Breaking Bad"
14. "The Dick Van Dyke Show"
15. "Hill Street Blues"
16. "Arrested Development"
17. "The Daily Show"
18. "Six Feet Under"
19. "Taxi"
20. "The Larry Sanders Show"
21. "30 Rock"
22. "Friday Night Lights"
23. "Frasier"
24. "Friends"
25. "Saturday Night Live"
26. "The X-Files"
27. "Lost"
28. "ER"
29. "The Cosby Show"
30. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
31. "The Honeymooners"
32. "Deadwood"
33. "Star Trek"
34. "Modern Family"
35. "Twin Peaks"
36. "NYPD Blue"
37. "The Carol Burnett Show"
38. "Battlestar Galactica"
39. "Sex and the City"
40. "Game of Thrones"
41. "The Bob Newhart Show"
42. "Your Show of Shows"
43. "Downton Abbey"
44. "Law & Order"
45. "Thirtysomething"
46. "St. Elsewhere"
47. "Homicide: Life on the Street"
48. "Homeland"
49. "Buffy the Vampire Slayer"
50. "The Good Wife"
51. "The Colbert Report"
52. "The Office" (British version)
53. "Northern Exposure"
54. "The Wonder Years"
55. "L.A. Law"
56. "Sesame Street"
57. "Columbo"
58. "The Rockford Files"
59. "Fawlty Towers"
60. "Moonlighting"
61. "Freaks and Geeks"
62. "Roots"
63. "Everybody Loves Raymond"
64. "South Park"
65. "Playhouse 90"
66. "The Office" (U.S. version)
67. "Dexter"
68. "My So-Called Life"
69. "Golden Girls"
70. "The Andy Griffith Show"
71. "The Shield"
72. "Roseanne"
73. "24"
74. "Murphy Brown"
75. "House"
76. "Barney Miller"
77. "I, Claudius"
78. "The Odd Couple"
79. "Star Trek: The Next Generation"
80. "Alfred Hitchcock Presents"
81. "Upstairs Downstairs"
82. "Monty Python's Flying Circus"
83. "Get Smart"
84. "Gunsmoke"
85. "The Defenders"
86. "Sergeant Bilko"
87. "Justified"
88. "Band of Brothers"
89. "Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In"
90. "The Prisoner"
91. "The Muppet Show"
92. "Absolutely Fabulous"
93. "Boardwalk Empire"
94. "Will and Grace"
95. "Family Ties"
96. "Lonesome Dove"
97. "Soap"
98. "The Fugitive"
99. "Louie"
100. "Late Night With David Letterman"
101. "Oz"

Sunday, April 7, 2013

A Television Mystery

Consider the following line-up of shows, perhaps the greatest night of prime time television programming ever from a single network.
  • (8:00) All in the Family (1)
  • (8:30) M*A*S*H* (4)
  • (9:00) The Mary Tyler Moore Show (9)
  • (9:30) The Bob Newhart Show (12)
  • (10:00) The Carol Burnett Show (27)
This was CBS slate of prime time shows for Saturday night for the 1973-1974 season, my senior year in high school.

At least four of these five shows are considered bona fide classics. Two of them, All in the Family and The Mary Tyler Moore Show, are in the the running for the title of the best situation comedy of all time. Let's be clear, these are not just highly regarded shows by critics and historians, they were also huge hits in their day. Three of them were top ten hits, and All in the Family was the number one show on television, a achievement that it maintained for an astonishing five consecutive years from 1971-72 through the 1975-76 season. Among scripted network programs, only The Cosby Show has equaled that record and none have surpassed it.

The only competition to this amazing line-up of shows that I can think of is NBC's Thursday night schedule of must-see-TV during the 1994-1998 seasons, which included Seinfeld, ER, and Friends.

What's truly amazing about the Saturday line-up from 1973-74 is that it was on Saturday! Today, and for a long time, Saturday has been a television wasteland, not Newton Minow's "vast wasteland", but an actual entertainment wasteland of reruns, cancelled shows, and about to be cancelled shows. No one much watches network television on Saturday nights anymore. In fact, not many people watch network television on Friday nights either, which also used to be a great night* for television.

This is a complete mystery to me. What has changed since the 1970s that stopped the American public from watching network TV on Friday and Saturday nights? I am tempted to lay the blame for this at the feet of media diversification. There are so many sources of entertainment today beyond the major television networks--home video, the Internet, and pay cable TV to name the obvious candidates. This is a fairly well-understood phenomenon, and goes a long way towards explaining the general drop in network television viewership over the last three decades.

What is not clear is why this general loss of viewers would apply specifically to Saturday night. For example, Sunday night is still the most-watched night of the week. 60 Minutes is regularly one of the top 10 shows. Why would people stop watching network TV on Saturday night, but continue watching on Sunday night? How does the existence of HBO explain that?

There are only two possibilities. Either we are not watching television at all (of any kind) nearly as much as we used to on Saturday nights; or, we still watch television on Saturday, just not network television. The problem is that neither of these explanations seems clearly plausible. The public was every bit as mobile in the 1970s as they are now. I don't recall watching that great night of television in 1973-1974 much, because Saturday night I was generally out with friends doing something other than watching TV. I see no reason to think that this has changed much in the last 40 years. The problem with the second explanation is the one I have already mentioned. Why would media diversification disproportionally affect Saturday night as opposed to, say, Thursday night?

The best explanation I can think of is the following: media diversification is primarily in the realm of entertainment. Friday and Saturday nights are when most of us seek entertainment the most aggressively as we long for a respite from the stresses of the work week. It makes sense that entertainment diversification would have its largest effect during those times we are most focused on being entertained. Sunday night is a time of relaxation while we prepare to return to the regular work schedule, and we are less distracted by the sheer variety of entertainment sources. As explanations go, this is fairly lame, but it is the best I can do.

* One of my fond memories as a child in the late 1960s was staying up late on Friday nights to watch the Johnny Carson Show. Carson routinely saved his best line-up of guests (Don Rickles, Bob Hope, Dean Martin, Frank Sinatra, etc.) for Friday night. Friday was the crown jewel of the Tonight Show's programming.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

The End of an Era

When Gene Siskel died in 1n 1999 at the absurd age of 53, I was stunned and saddened. It affected me as much or more than the death of any public figure in my lifetime. I have often wondered why. I think that the reason is that I began regularly watching Siskel and Ebert's Sneak Previews on PBS when it went into wide syndication in 1978.


I was 22 years old and just beginning to develop some intellectual interests. I had always loved the movies, but Siskel and Ebert allowed me to go beyond merely enjoying film, but to also start thinking about film in a more critical vein. I literally grew up with these guys, watching the various iterations of this show from 1978 until Siskel's death in 1999. 19 years is a long time.

I continued to watch after Ebert continued on with various guest reviewers until he finally settled on Richard Roeper. It was a still a good show, but it always seemed to me that Siskel's untimely death took something out of Ebert. His reviews were never as sharp and incisive as they had been. He even seemed to go a little easy on films he would have savaged in the Siskel and Ebert days.

Sadly, in 1996 Ebert was struck by cancer, just as Siskel had been. However, Ebert's bout with this horrible disease seemed especially cruel. The thyroid and then salivary gland cancer left him disfigured and unable to speak or eat. Clearly, his television days were over. Roeper soldiered on for a couple of years until At the Movies, as it was now called, was cancelled.

Ebert tried to resurrect the show in 2011 by showcasing Christy Lemire and Ignatiy Vishnevetsky in Ebert Presents At the Movies. Ebert himself offered occasional reviews shot tastefully from his office set, using journalist and anchor Bill Kurtis and others to voice the content.

Despite the fact that it was syndicated on PBS, Ebert Presents At the Movies was abandoned after a single season. Apparently, the economics had changed dramatically since the show's heyday in the early 80s. Without external sponsorship, the show was simply too expensive for Ebert to produce. When it left the air Ebert bravely announced that it would return with new sponsors, but the writing was on the wall. The Internet, it seems, killed the economic viability of Siskel and Ebert-type shows. People apparently would rather simply check a numeric score on Rotten Tomatoes or Meta Critic than watch two critics on television discussing the movies of that week. I like those web sites too. I visit them regularly on Friday afternoons as a way of helping me to decide what film I should see that evening.

It's not the same. The biggest joy I got from watching Siskel and Ebert was from comparing their reactions to my own about films I had already seen. I will never forget Ebert's impassioned defense of Apocalypse Now in 1979. Siskel gave the film a thumbs-down, claiming that it fell apart at the end. Ebert argued that the dissolution at the end of the film was an intentional metaphor for the war in Vietnam. Siskel could only smile, and without changing his mind, granted that Ebert gave the film the best defense available. Alas, the economics and technology of the 21st century have seemingly precluded intelligent discussion like this on television. Charlie Rose is one exception that comes to mind, but he has obtained and kept the corporate sponsorship that eluded Roger Ebert.

Ebert died today, succumbing to cancer that had spread to his bones. I was saddened, of course, but it was no surprise. It did not produce the shock I felt when Gene Siskel was cut down in the prime of life. Ebert, at least, made his three score and ten.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

The Genesis of a Right-Wing Conspiracy Theory

As the conservative movement heads relentlessly ever more towards the World Net Daily- black helicopter-Elvis-is-alive-and-stole-by-baby-and-gave-him-to-aliens territory, I see the beginning of a new conspiracy theory looming in the shadows. Take a look at this Investor's Business Daily op-ed, entitled "First, They Came For The Cypriots...".

The passage that caught my eye was this:
Already Congressional Democrats are plotting the expropriation of Americans' private 401(k) and IRA retirement savings accounts in favor of "a guaranteed income." If bank accounts can be casually expropriated in Cyprus to pay for big-spending governments and bailouts, there is no reason a nice slice of the $19 trillion in retirement accounts can't get the same treatment.

If it happens, it will signal the end of individual freedom and the return of feudalism.
I found it interesting that the "Congressional Democrats are plotting the expropriation of Americans' private 401(k) and IRA retirement savings accounts in favor of "a guaranteed income."" passage included no link. What EXACTLY are congressional Democrats "plotting" and is it really a tax on savings to finance a government bailout (the Cypriot example)?

Well, no.

As far as I can tell, there is no pending legislation on this front at all. I did a Google search on "guaranteed income legislation" and "401k replacement legislation" and several hybrids, and all I could come up with were stories about how the 401k instrument--which is not a constitutional provision, but instead created by an act of Congress in 1978--has not worked out very well. A variety of studies have shown that workers do consistently better with traditional company pension plans, that the average 401k nest egg is shockingly low, and that the tax incentives to encourage 401k contributions are not very effective. Finally, the only alternative I have seen even discussed are plans that require contributions and structure the program more like an annuity.

So at some point in the distant future, perhaps the tax incentives that support the 401k approach and be repealed and the 401k system might be replaced with another system that will require more savings into safer investments that guarantee lifetime income--sort of a  private supplement to Social Security benefits.

Is this "feudalism"? I don't think so. But then again, what about the fate of our precious bodily fluids?

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bob Woodward's Reputational Decline

In case you haven't caught it, there was a recent incident that has garnered quite a bit of press attention concerning the quality of Bob Woodward's reporting. He received a harmless, even friendly, e-mail from White House adviser Gene Sperling and basically tried to turn it into a mini-scandal. Woodward ended up looking either foolish or incompetent.

Tanner Colby has written an astonishingly good Slate article exploring Woodward's apparent tendency to exaggerate and over-dramatize. What is especially interesting about Colby's article is that he uses as a case study the one book Bob Woodward wrote that wasn't about Washington. The book was Wired, his 1984 biography of John Belushi. What makes this such an interesting and useful approach (Colby is writing his own book about Belushi) is that the sources in Wired did not speak to Woodward in secret, as is common with government sources. There was no Deep Throat here. They are basically all Hollywood and other entertainment people who Colby was able to re-interview, and they talked freely. He was essentially able to re-report Woodward's book by talking to people who knew and worked with Belushi like John Landis, Blair Brown, and Al Franken. They all told Colby the same thing: while Woodward got the essential facts correct, he twisted their meaning and context to the point that the larger story they told was unrecognizable from the reality that the eyewitnesses described.

Colby makes a compelling case that this is essentially what occurred in les affaires Sperling. It is a good read.

Postscript: Speaking of celebrity biographies, I recently read a biography of Clint Eastwood about which I was initially skeptical. It was so negative and painted such a relentlessly unflattering portrayal of the subject that I assumed the writing was based on bias or personal animus. Until I read the book's afterward, that is. The author openly, almost apologetically, acknowledged the negative tone of the book and made a real effort to explain it. He compared it to another biography he had written about Jack Nicholson. He explained that he tried to get his sources to relay salacious and negative stories about Nicholson, but was unsuccessful. "Everyone", he wrote, "just seems to love Jack." He contrasted this with the instant willingness of numerous sources to say bad things about Eastwood. Clint, it appears, has made a lot of enemies.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Oscar Watch

Ever since Bonnie and Clyde, the film that is the most responsible for making me a life-long movie-buff, lost the 1967 Oscar to In the Heat of the Night, I have learned to live with the near certainly that my Oscar preferences are generally not shared by the Academy.

It is in that spirit that I offer the following Oscar picks.

Best Picture
In my opinion, Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln tower above the other choices. The remainders on the list are all good, but Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln are great films that will stand the test of time. The favored picture, Argo, is quite good. I have seen it twice. However, not only is not the best film this year, it is not even the best Ben Affleck film. I think that The Town and Gone Baby, Gone are better films. The problem with Argo is that the first 3/4 of the film are competent, but not outstanding. The last section of the film is very exciting and offers a palpable emotional release, but it also offers up a healthy serving of pure Hollywood hokum, depicting events that didn't actually occur all for the sake of dramatic emphasis.

If I were a voting member I would weigh in with Zero Dark Thirty. No film affected me more this year than Kathryn Bigelow's story of the decade-long hunt for Osama Bin Laden. Bigelow didn't have to spice up the ending to manipulate the audience. The truth was dramatic enough. As a bonus, it is the most effective feminist film in, well, maybe ever.

Best Director
This is an easy one. Affleck isn't even nominated. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln going away.

Best Actor
If any win is a lock this year, then it is this one. If Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln does not win, then it will be a big upset. In this case the conventional wisdom gets it right. His performance is preternaturally authentic. In future years when we think of Lincoln, we will have Day-Lewis' portrayal in mind.

Best Actress
My pick is Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty. Chastain pulls off an amazing feat. She portrays an unsympathetic character who has an almost reptilian, emotionless obsession for achieving a single goal and does so without alienating the audience. It is a difficult task that she pulls off magnificently. However, Jennifer Lawrence will probably win for Silver Linings Playbook. I liked Lawrence's performance in this, but I can't help but feel as if she got the nomination for one pivotal scene in which she wows the boys with her impressive knowledge of Philadelphia Eagles football.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln. Tony Kushner's screen adaptation of Doris Kearns Goodwin's Team of Rivals is a masterpiece.

Best Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty. Mark Boal's journalistic style serves him well in this two-and-a-half hour procedural. It probably won't win because of all of the (mostly silly in my opinion) controversy about its portrayal of torture.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Scarborough/Krugman Smackdown Follow-up

Since I posted on Joe Scarborough's witless response in Politico to Paul Krugman's appearance on Morning Joe, much as occurred. Scarborough's article stimulated something of an Internet firestorm.

First, Paul Krugman responded directly to Scarborough's article. And again.

Next, Jon Chait weighed in on the controversy. In the post "Wow, Joe Scarborough Doesn’t Understand Economics at All", the summary quote is "On virtually every single fact here, though, Scarborough is wrong." Then, Scarborough responded to Chait and Krugman both on Morning Joe and Twitter. The relevant discussion begins at about the 5:30 point.


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Next, Chait responded directly to Scarborough, including Scarborough's Tweet in which he hilariously (completely unintentional) wrote "Childish insults and skewed graphs liberals make up on their mom's PowerPoint does not change reality. Facts-and math-are stubborn things."

This is all very entertaining. Chait's analogy between this flap and Scarborough's short-lived public feud with Nate Silver, which ended in Scarborough conceding everything that Silver had claimed and (sort of) apologizing. Of course, there is no single illuminating event, such as the results of an election, that will offer as clear and opportunity to test Scarborough's position. Too bad.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Why are Republicans so Ideological?

A recent PPP survey reveals an interesting dichotomy between Democratic and Republican views of the media.

The headline of this survey was that Fox News hit a new low for trust. 46% of all Americans surveyed said that they did not trust Fox, compared to 41% who reported that they did trust the Rupert Murdock network.

However, what interests me more are the results broken down by political party. Not surprisingly, Republicans trust Fox while Democrats -44 (22/66) and independents -24 (32/56) don't. In fact, Republicans tend not to trust any news source other than Fox. Indeed, it is the intensity of the Republican commitment to Fox that makes it simultaneously the most mistrusted and the most trusted source for news. 

What is more surprising are Democratic attitudes. If Democrats were a mirror image of Republicans, then you would expect them to trust MSNBC the most. MSNBC has embarked on a clear strategy designed to appeal to liberal viewers and opinion-based programming. However, the survey shows that Democrats rate MSNBC third behind NBC and far behind PBS.
  • PBS +61 (72/11)
  • NBC +45 (61/16)
  • MSNBC +39 (58/19)
Outside of Fox, Republican mistrust of the media is widespread.
  • Fox +55 (70/15)
  • PBS at -21 (27/48)
  • NBC -48 (18/66)
  • CNN -49 (17/66)
  • ABC -56 (14/70)
  • MSNBC -56 (12/68)
  • CBS -57 (15/72)
  • Comedy Central -58 (8/66)
Taken together, these results tell me that, compared to Democrats, Republicans are more likely to seek media outlets designed to confirm their ideological preferences. Otherwise, it is hard to explain why Democrats trust PBS significantly more than MSNBC. They may like MSNBC because it tells them what they want to hear, but Democrats trust PBS more because they place more trust in a network attempting to adhere to standard guidelines of fairness and objectivity. Republican sentiment seems to confirm this, in so far as they rate PBS as the most trusted non-Fox network. In contrast to Democratic attitudes, Republicans seem to have rejected entirely the goal of objective news gathering and reporting.

In the late 1980s there were of series of books published attempting to expose and criticize a liberal bias in higher education (The Closing of the American Mind, Illiberal Education, Tenured Radicals, etc.). At the time I was sympathetic to this critique because I sympathized with the thesis that all of these books shared. They argued that many professors in higher education--especially in the humanities--had abandoned the very concept of objective truth and politically neutral scholarly excellence. Furthermore, once you abandon those standards higher education becomes little more than an exercise in vocational training and political indoctrination.

It is ironic and more than a little depressing that the conservative media movement that began in the early 1990s has embraced as their own an idea that they used to condemn in almost apocalyptic terms. True, academia and the media are not the same, but the quality of both depend upon a fair and accurate investigation, analysis, and reporting of information. Goose sauce meet gander sauce.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Scarbourough Does it Again


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I have been really hard on Joe Scarborough. See this and this. On his show, Morning Joe, he sounds quite reasonable, but when he sits down to write his Politico column, he seems compelled to hitch a ride on the crazy train express.

The latest, and I think most egregious, example is today's column discussing the appearance of Paul Krugman this morning on Morning Joe. To begin, Joe Scarborough evaluating Paul Krugman's views on economics is eerily similar to an amoebae calculating Pi to its final digit: overambitious as it is pointless. Second, I know Krugman's thinking quite well. I have read most of his books--including the one discussed on Morning Joe--and I read his NY Times column and his blog every day. I am not alone. According to Technorati, Krugman writes the most popular individual blog on the Internet. Scarborough's characterization of Krugman's views are alien to me. Third, Scarborough's column isn't just mistaken in its usual witless, exquisitely clueless fashion. This one also includes a kind of meta-witlessness in which he not only writes that which isn't true, but the falsehoods he writes don't even address the comments made by the person who appeared on his show. Think about this for a minute. Scarborough can't even accurately describe the contents of his own show. . . . . Words fail.

You can read the column yourself, but this is its essence.
  • Krugman's views run contrary to almost all mainstream economists. False.
  • Krugman believes that we should ignore our long-term debt. False.

Krugman's view is quite easy to state, and he stated it very clearly on Morning Joe. It isn't that long-term deficits don't matter. It is just that they are, by definition, long term. There are other short-term problems--primarily ruinously high unemployment--that are both more pressing and more critical to the nation in the short run. It is a question of immediate priorities. Krugman would be happy to endorse stimulus that addressed our short-term economic shortfall now coupled with long-term policies that addressed our debt in the out years. His only concern is that the political system is not capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time.

Scarborough ends the column with a particularly pointless pair of charts laying out the debt-to-GDP ratio, as though there was some factual dispute between Krugman and, well, whomever about the level of debt. The charts show that debt has exploded since the 2008 crash, which is exactly what you would expect. Part of that is because of higher spending on automatic safety net programs (food stamps, unemployment insurance, etc.) and part of it is because of a depressed economy. The ratio looks bad because the denominator is artificially low. Rattner's charts also show that the public debt-to-GDP ratio was much higher than it is now during WWII and fell like a stone once the war spending ended and the domestic economy recovered.

Anyway, you should watch the Morning Joe segment. If all you knew about it was Scarborough's column, I think you'd be surprised.

Update: Krugman responds to the Scarborough column.