Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Joe Scarborough is an Idiot

I actually kind of like Joe Scarborough. I think that he is a member of that dying breed of honest and reasonable conservatives.

Nonetheless, he suffers from another problem. Let's face it, the guy just isn't very bright. Or perhaps he just never learned how to research, assess, and report information accurately and fairly. It is a useful skill set for someone who offers opinions for a living, but this is the world in which we live.

My first hint of this problem appeared in a particularly witless Politico article that I commented on here in which Scarborough bemoaned the growth in spending by comparing dollar outlays in 1980 against 2010 without taking into consideration the corresponding overall increase in the size of the economy and population over 30 years.

The second sign of trouble was Scarborough's uniformed rant against Nate Silver's claim that there were strong odds that President Obama would be re-elected. We know how that turned out.


To his credit, after the election, Scarborough apologized.

In his latest Politico article he repeats the GOP mantra that we don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem. Well, how much taxes are we collecting as a percentage of the economy compared to other times in our history? Scarborough doesn't fudge this number. He just ignores it entirely. I don't think he is intentionally misleading us. I have come to the conclusion that he is just not aware of such things. He is limited to political sloganeering and gut feeling.

In 2010, tax collection as a percentage of GDP was just under 15%. This is the lowest level since 1950 and considerably lower than the post-WII average of just under 18%. Consider the following chart.


This clearly shows two things: First, the current high deficits are caused by BOTH higher spending and lower revenue. Second, the budget surpluses of the late 1990s were achieved by, again, a combination of lower spending AND higher revenue.

This data is publicly available and not hard to find.

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