Oscar Watch

Ever since Bonnie and Clyde, the film that is the most responsible for making me a life-long movie-buff, lost the 1967 Oscar to In the Heat of the Night, I have learned to live with the near certainly that my Oscar preferences are generally not shared by the Academy.

It is in that spirit that I offer the following Oscar picks.

Best Picture
In my opinion, Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln tower above the other choices. The remainders on the list are all good, but Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln are great films that will stand the test of time. The favored picture, Argo, is quite good. I have seen it twice. However, not only is not the best film this year, it is not even the best Ben Affleck film. I think that The Town and Gone Baby, Gone are better films. The problem with Argo is that the first 3/4 of the film are competent, but not outstanding. The last section of the film is very exciting and offers a palpable emotional release, but it also offers up a healthy serving of pure Hollywood hokum, depicting events that didn't actually occur all for the sake of dramatic emphasis.

If I were a voting member I would weigh in with Zero Dark Thirty. No film affected me more this year than Kathryn Bigelow's story of the decade-long hunt for Osama Bin Laden. Bigelow didn't have to spice up the ending to manipulate the audience. The truth was dramatic enough. As a bonus, it is the most effective feminist film in, well, maybe ever.

Best Director
This is an easy one. Affleck isn't even nominated. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln going away.

Best Actor
If any win is a lock this year, then it is this one. If Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln does not win, then it will be a big upset. In this case the conventional wisdom gets it right. His performance is preternaturally authentic. In future years when we think of Lincoln, we will have Day-Lewis' portrayal in mind.

Best Actress
My pick is Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty. Chastain pulls off an amazing feat. She portrays an unsympathetic character who has an almost reptilian, emotionless obsession for achieving a single goal and does so without alienating the audience. It is a difficult task that she pulls off magnificently. However, Jennifer Lawrence will probably win for Silver Linings Playbook. I liked Lawrence's performance in this, but I can't help but feel as if she got the nomination for one pivotal scene in which she wows the boys with her impressive knowledge of Philadelphia Eagles football.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln. Tony Kushner's screen adaptation of Doris Kearns Goodwin's Team of Rivals is a masterpiece.

Best Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty. Mark Boal's journalistic style serves him well in this two-and-a-half hour procedural. It probably won't win because of all of the (mostly silly in my opinion) controversy about its portrayal of torture.